Prairie crop markets this week
Canola
Canola futures ended the week almost where they started, but the crush margin fell C$26 a tonne and spot bids slipped a little more than futures despite strong exports.
- Basis widened slightly this week, ending last week's narrowing.
- Lower values for canola oil and meal cut the crush margin, while exports and country shipments stayed strong.
- Whether oil values recover, and whether exports keep this pace, will decide how much room buyers have on bids.
CWRS wheat
CWRS bids followed spring wheat futures down almost dollar for dollar this week, so basis stopped narrowing but held at its narrowest for this time of year in six years.
- The futures drop came almost entirely from the lower US-dollar price, not the exchange rate.
- Elevators still shipped far more wheat than farmers delivered, and Manitoba's elevator stocks fell fastest.
- Heavier farm deliveries or slower shipments from the country would weaken the elevator pull that has gone with this narrow basis.
Durum
Durum bids held close to last week's lower level while exports slowed to a normal pace and stocks kept falling at both the ports and country elevators.
- The median spot bid slipped about C$1 a tonne after last week's sharp drop.
- Exporters kept drawing on a system that holds less durum than usual.
- Stronger overseas buying, or exporters needing more farm grain to keep their pace, would give bids support.
Yellow peas
Yellow pea bids edged up in every region as exports and country shipments more than doubled, even though farmers again delivered more than in any of the past five years for this week.
- The median yellow pea bid rose about C$2.50 a tonne after last week's dip.
- Elevators shipped peas out faster than farmers brought them in, after two weeks the other way round.
- If loadings slow again while deliveries stay this heavy, this week's support could fade.
Lentils
No lentils left the terminals in bulk this week and country elevators kept filling up, while quotes split, with red lentils falling and green lentils rising.
- Red lentil quotes fell while green lentil quotes rose, a split the bulk flows cannot explain.
- Elevator stocks are below average in tonnes but cover more weeks than usual, because shipments slowed.
- Renewed bulk loadings would start to draw on those elevator stocks again.
Chickpeas
Chickpea quotes held their late-October rise while farmers delivered more than in this week of any recent year, and elevator stocks did not build.
- The higher Saskatchewan quotes of 28 October were unchanged on 4 November.
- Elevators shipped less than the week before but still about twice the usual amount.
- Elevator stocks starting to build would be the first sign that the large crop is outrunning buyers.
Barley
Barley exports rose for a third straight week while farm deliveries fell to their lowest for this week in six years, and country elevator stocks fell.
- Exports ran far above the usual pace for this time of year.
- Farmers delivered little, and country elevators shipped more than they took in, drawing their stocks down.
- Unless farm deliveries pick up, elevators that keep shipping at this rate would draw their stocks lower.
Oats
Mills ground more oats than in this week of any recent year and terminal exports had their biggest week of the season, while farm sales slipped back below usual.
- Mills and exporters both took more oats this week.
- Farmers sold less than usual, and processors drew down their own stocks to keep milling.
- If farm sales stay this low while mills run this hard, buyers will have to draw stocks lower or attract more grain.
Soybeans
Heavy farm deliveries kept building soybean stocks at country elevators while Manitoba's quote fell again, and exports rose to about the usual pace, with most port shipments leaving eastern terminals.
- Farmers delivered more soybeans than in this week of any recent year.
- Elevators shipped more too, but not enough to stop their stocks rising.
- Faster shipments from western elevators would work the extra stocks down; if they stay below deliveries, stocks keep building.