Prairie crop markets this week
Canola
Canola bids fell with futures this week, and basis held still after four weeks of narrowing while crushing slowed for a second week.
- Futures fell this week, and spot bids in every region fell by almost exactly the same amount.
- Crushing slowed for a second week while farm deliveries stayed above average, and basis held where it was.
- Faster crushing, or exports running ahead of what reaches the ports, would give buyers reason to narrow basis again.
CWRS wheat
Spring wheat futures fell, but CWRS bids fell less than half as much as basis narrowed again in every region while wheat moved to port at a fast pace.
- Cash bids fell only about C$5 a tonne, less than half the drop in futures.
- Elevators kept moving wheat to port quickly, and a narrower basis is how their need for deliveries shows up.
- Country stocks are still above average, so slower rail movement to port would weaken the reason for basis to keep narrowing.
Durum
Durum bids held at last week's higher level as a wave of grain reached the ports and built stocks there, while farmers delivered little.
- Durum bids barely moved this week after last week's big rise.
- A large amount of durum reached the ports while farmers delivered less than usual, so neither side pushed bids.
- Faster loadings would draw port stocks down and renew the pull on country grain; heavier farm deliveries would ease it.
Yellow peas
Yellow pea bids rose again, more slowly, as exports ran at twice what reached the ports while shipments from the country slowed and farm deliveries stayed above average.
- Yellow pea bids rose again this week, but by much less than the week before.
- Exports ran well ahead of what reached the ports, while farmers delivered a little more than usual and elevator stocks stopped falling.
- Slower exports, or more farm selling at these prices, would ease the pull on bids.
Lentils
Lentil prices were mixed as farmers delivered less than half the usual amount for the week, while exports stayed slow.
- Alberta's green lentil quotes rose while its red lentil quote fell, and Saskatchewan's quotes did not change.
- Farmers are selling few lentils, but exporters are loading slowly too, so there is little export pull on elevator stocks.
- Faster export loadings would make the thin farm deliveries matter more for prices; more farm selling would refill elevators.
Chickpeas
Chickpea quotes held for another week as the harvest finished, and the official outlook nudged its price forecast up rather than down.
- Saskatchewan's desi and kabuli chickpea quotes have not changed since late September.
- The harvest is finished and supply is large, yet the official price outlook rose slightly.
- A change in the quotes as farmers start selling the new crop would show whether that supply is weighing on prices.
Barley
Barley stocks at country elevators fell back to about average as grain moved to port faster than farmers delivered, and port stocks stayed well above usual as arrivals outran loadings.
- Country elevators shipped far more barley than farmers delivered, so their stocks are back to about normal.
- The barley went to the ports faster than it was loaded onto ships, so port stocks built up.
- Faster export loadings would clear the ports; if loadings stay slow, port stocks would keep building.
Oats
Oat shipments out of country elevators picked up to about the usual pace, drawing stocks below the usual range, while farm deliveries stayed at less than half the usual level.
- Elevators shipped oats at about the usual pace again, but farmers delivered less than half the usual amount.
- Elevator stocks fell below the usual range for the date, while mills kept grinding at their normal pace.
- Deliveries staying this low with harvest finished would point to the smaller crop or farmers holding oats back.
Soybeans
Manitoba's soybean price eased as Chicago futures slipped, while elevator stocks caught up to normal even though the harvest is still running late.
- Manitoba's soybean price slipped this week but stays well above last year.
- Farmers delivered enough over the past two weeks to bring elevator stocks back to normal, though the harvest is still behind.
- How fast exports load as the harvest finishes will decide whether soybean stocks start to build.