Durum bids held at last week's higher level as a wave of grain reached the ports and built stocks there, while farmers delivered little.

Durum bids held this week after last week's jump. The median regional spot bid for No. 1 CWAD was C$315.37 a tonne, up only C$0.55, with three regions slightly higher and two slightly lower. The bid is about 12 per cent above last year at this point but below the same week in each of the other four of the past five years. Durum has no futures market, and no report on world durum prices was found for the week, so the Canadian flows are the only guide to what held bids in place.Charts: Exhibit 18, Exhibit 19

The ports are well supplied. Port terminals received 115,600 tonnes of durum from country elevators, well above the five-year average for the week, after a large week of shipments out of those elevators. Exports held near their recent pace at 78,100 tonnes, about the same as the week before and in the middle of the past five years for the week, while the four-week and eight-week averages are above their five-year averages. With more durum arriving than leaving, port stocks rose to 27 per cent above average. At the recent pace of port shipments they still cover about the usual number of weeks, so the ports are well supplied rather than overloaded.Charts: Exhibit 5, Exhibit 2, Exhibit 7

Farmers delivered little. Deliveries to country elevators were 90,400 tonnes, about level with 2023-24 and below three of the past five years for the week. Country elevator stocks rose but are still 10 per cent below average. Shipments out of those elevators fell back well below average after the large week before, so the stocks now cover more weeks of shipments than usual. With the ports well supplied and farmers selling little, buyers had little reason to move bids either way.Charts: Exhibit 5, Exhibit 7

Last week's rise came during a fast export season from a smaller crop, and the season is still well ahead, with crop-year exports 42 per cent above last year. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's October 20 report, released after the week ended, raised its durum export forecast by 250,000 tonnes and lowered its forecast of stocks at the end of the season. Even so, the four-week export average is below the weekly pace the official forecast needs.Charts: Exhibit 2, Exhibit 30

Buyers still pay more for durum now than for later delivery. In four of the five regions with forward bids, no later month pays more than spot once interest is counted; in southwest Saskatchewan, January and February pay about C$2 a tonne more. Faster loadings would draw port stocks down and renew the pull on country grain. If farm deliveries pick up while loadings stay at this pace, buyers would have less reason to keep the spot bid at this level.Charts: Exhibit 49