Durum bids posted their biggest weekly rise of the crop year in a week when heavy shipments drew country elevator stocks below their five-year range.

Durum bids rose sharply in the week of October 5 to 9. The median regional spot bid for No. 1 CWAD reached C$314.82 a tonne, up C$14.99 from the week before, the largest weekly gain this crop year, and every one of the five regions quoting a bid rose. The bid is above last year at this point but below the same week in four of the past five years. Durum has no futures market, so the rise cannot be split into a world-price part and a basis part. It was reported on 5 October that St. Lawrence export quotes had reached up to US$335 a tonne in the previous week, against about US$300 in early September, with no reason given.Charts: Exhibit 18, Exhibit 19

The Grain Commission's figures for the week ended October 11 show durum leaving country elevators fast in the same week. Shipments out of country elevators jumped to 167,300 tonnes, nearly five times the week before and well above the five-year average. Farm deliveries were about average, so country elevator stocks fell 55,500 tonnes, to below the five-year range for the date. When elevators ship out far more than farmers bring in, they need deliveries to refill, and a higher bid is how that shows up. The draw has limits, though. Port terminals received less durum than average that week, exports were at the five-year average, and at the recent shipping pace country stocks still cover about the usual number of weeks.Charts: Exhibit 5, Exhibit 7, Exhibit 10, Exhibit 2

Behind the week sits a fast export season from a smaller crop. Terminal exports so far this crop year total 885,400 tonnes, 76 per cent more than last year, and Statistics Canada's model puts this year's crop below last year's. Even so, the official outlook expects stocks to build. In September it put ending stocks at 1.5 million tonnes, above the 1.1 million carried in on July 31, and exports over the past four weeks ran below the weekly pace its export forecast needs. So the week's rise lines up with the speed of movement out of elevators, not with a shortage of durum over the year.Charts: Exhibit 2, Exhibit 24, Exhibit 30

Buyers are paying more for durum now than for later. In four of the five regions with forward bids, every later delivery month pays less than the spot bid once interest is counted. The exception is southwest Saskatchewan, where January and February delivery pay slightly more after interest. If shipments drop back from this week's pace, or farm deliveries rebuild elevator stocks, buyers would have less reason to keep the spot bid this far ahead of deferred bids.Charts: Exhibit 49