Durum bids fell about C$13 a tonne this week, and fell in every region, even though exports had their biggest week of the season and stocks fell at both ports and country elevators.

The median regional spot bid for No. 1 CWAD fell C$12.98 to C$302.39 a tonne, and bids fell in all five regions that quote durum. That undoes most of the jump of two weeks ago and puts bids back near their late-September level. They are still a little above last year at this point, but below the same week in each of the other four of the past five years. Durum has no futures market, and no market report found for the week explained the fall.Charts: Exhibit 18, Exhibit 19

The Canadian flows point the other way. Terminal exports were 155,200 tonnes, the largest week of the season and above the five-year range for the week. Last week's reading was that faster loadings would renew the pull on country grain, and loadings did speed up. Port stocks, well above average last week, fell to 11 per cent below average, and exports minus port receipts account for most of that fall. Country elevator stocks fell to 28 per cent below average, below the five-year range, and the tables rate them below usual. Farm deliveries were lower than in any of the past five years for this week, the fourth weekly decline in a row.Charts: Exhibit 2, Exhibit 5, Exhibit 7, Exhibit 10

So the fall in bids did not come from Canadian buyers being well supplied. Last week bids held while the ports were well supplied and farmers sold little. This week bids fell while exports surged and stocks were drawn down. Durum bids depend largely on what exporters can sell durum for abroad, and none of the exhibits tracks that price. A market outlook published on October 26 said there was little room for a broad rally because world durum supplies are fairly comfortable, and that fewer samples were reaching the top two grades. It gave no reason for this week's move.Charts: Exhibit 18, Exhibit 2

The season's export pace is strong. Crop-year terminal exports are 50 per cent ahead of last year and above every one of the past five years at this point. With country stocks already below usual and deliveries slowing, exporters will need more farm grain if this pace holds.Charts: Exhibit 2, Exhibit 7

Buyers do not pay much to wait. After interest, November and December delivery pay less than spot, and the best later month, February, pays a median of about C$1.40 a tonne more, before storage. If exports stay near this week's pace while deliveries stay low, buyers will have to compete harder for durum. If world durum prices ease, Canadian bids can fall even while the elevator system runs short.Charts: Exhibit 56