Chickpea quotes held through the week, then rose on October 28 for the first time since late September, while more chickpeas moved through elevators than in any recent year for the week.
- Saskatchewan's chickpea quotes stayed flat during the week and rose a few days after it.
- Farmers delivered more chickpeas to elevators than usual for this time of year, though the volumes are small.
- Whether the higher quote holds while farmers sell a large crop will show how much buyers abroad want Canadian chickpeas.
Saskatchewan's October 21 quote put desi chickpeas at C$573.20 a tonne and 9 mm kabuli at C$638.24, the same as in every week since late September. Both moved on October 28, after the week ended. Desi rose C$29.32 and kabuli rose C$22.04. Even after that rise, desi sits in the middle of the past five years for this time of year, and kabuli is still below all of them. Chickpeas have no futures market and no weekly elevator bids on the page, so these provincial quotes are the only price measure.Charts: Exhibit 7, Exhibit 8
Farm selling picked up. Farmers delivered 3,600 tonnes to licensed country elevators and 1,000 tonnes straight to processors, and elevators shipped out 4,000 tonnes. Deliveries and shipments were both higher than in any of the past five years for this week. Country elevator stocks are about a quarter above average in tonnes, but they cover fewer weeks of shipments than usual, so they are not heavy. Licensed elevators handle only a small part of chickpea trade, so these flows show direction more than volume.Charts: Exhibit 2, Exhibit 4
Canada has plenty of chickpeas. The crop is well above the five-year average, and stocks at July 31 were nearly twice the average. Pakistan and the United States were the largest buyers in the latest customs month, August.Charts: Exhibit 10, Exhibit 11, Exhibit 6
One trade report on October 21 described world supply as tight. It said Indian export chickpea prices had edged up in quotes of October 17, with Australian offers firmer as Australia's crop is forecast to fall sharply, though it also said Indian dal mills were buying less locally. That report did not mention Canada and dates from before the week, so it does not explain the October 28 rise. It was also reported on October 27 that Canada had negotiated access to China for chickpeas; no terms or date were given.Charts: Exhibit 7
Last week's open question was whether farm selling of the new crop would push quotes down. So far it has not, since deliveries rose and the quotes went up a few days later. The signs lean firmer, with elevators shipping more than usual and the official price forecast raised slightly on October 20, but they sit against a large Canadian supply. If farmers keep delivering at this pace and the higher quote holds, buyers are absorbing the crop at better prices. If the quote slips back as more of the crop is sold, the large supply is setting the price.Charts: Exhibit 8, Exhibit 2, Exhibit 17