Soybean exports picked up to about their usual pace for the week, while heavier farm deliveries began to build stocks at country elevators as the Manitoba harvest caught up.

Manitoba's soybean quote was C$581.29 a tonne, down C$4.78 from the week before. It is still about 31 per cent above last year at this time and above the five-year average. Chicago soybean futures, which are not shown on the page, were mixed. Daily reports tied a dip on October 21 to fund selling and a fast US harvest, and tied gains on October 22 to heavy Chinese buying of US soybeans and on October 23 to strong US export sales. Those reports cover a different market from the Manitoba quote and do not explain its small fall.Charts: Exhibit 8

Export loadings picked up for a second week. Terminals shipped 241,800 tonnes, nearly twice the week before and about the five-year average for the week. Port receipts from western country elevators were about average. Port stocks still rose by 159,000 tonnes, almost all at the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence ports, to about the average for the date. Shipments out of the ports ran about 230,000 tonnes ahead of receipts from western elevators, so the reported western flows do not explain the rise. Over the past four weeks every soybean shipment out of port terminals left from the lower Great Lakes and St. Lawrence, ports that also take soybeans grown in Ontario and Quebec, so the export pace is only a partial guide to the pull on Manitoba stocks. Last week's reading was that below-average loadings would let stocks build as the harvest finished. Loadings picked up to about the usual pace instead, and port stocks rose to about the average for the date.Charts: Exhibit 2, Exhibit 5, Exhibit 7

The build-up is now in the country. Farmers delivered 110,500 tonnes, more than in three of the past five years for this week, while country elevators shipped less than in any of them. Country stocks, almost all in Manitoba, rose by 38,000 tonnes to 8 per cent above average. They also cover more weeks of shipments than usual, so both measures show stocks a little above normal. The Manitoba harvest has caught up. The province reported soybeans 95 per cent harvested on October 27, ahead of its five-year average, after running behind every recent year a week earlier. Saskatchewan, a much smaller grower, is still well behind.Charts: Exhibit 5, Exhibit 7, Exhibit 10

For the season, terminal exports are 24 per cent behind last year and slightly below the five-year average, so the export program is catching up rather than running ahead.Charts: Exhibit 2

With most of the Manitoba crop now harvested, deliveries now depend more on farmers' selling choices than on field progress. If loadings hold near this week's pace, country elevators can keep moving the extra stocks to port, though the same terminals also take eastern-grown soybeans. If loadings slow while deliveries stay above average, stocks would build in both the country and the ports.Charts: Exhibit 5, Exhibit 2