Manitoba's soybean price eased as Chicago futures slipped, while elevator stocks caught up to normal even though the harvest is still running late.

Manitoba's soybean quote of October 16 was C$586.07 a tonne, down C$6.24 from the week before. It is about 35 per cent above last year at this time and higher than in four of the past five years. Chicago November soybean futures, which are not shown on the page, slipped in each session from October 13 to 16, and the Manitoba quote moved the same way. Market reports tied those losses, day by day, to more new-crop US supply and doubts about Chinese demand, a Chinese state plan to auction imported soybeans, and a record Brazilian crop forecast, and gave no cause for Friday.Charts: Exhibit 8

The harvest is still late. Manitoba reported soybeans 80 per cent harvested on October 20, below any of the past five years at that date, and Saskatchewan reported 74 per cent on October 19, also below its five-year range.Charts: Exhibit 10

Elevators have caught up all the same. Farmers delivered 173,900 tonnes to country elevators in the week to October 11, well above the five-year average, and about the average amount in the week to October 18. Country elevator stocks, almost all of them in Manitoba, are now close to the five-year average for the date, and shipments out of those elevators were above average. So the late harvest no longer shows up as thin stocks at elevators, the main change since the October 4 figures.Charts: Exhibit 5, Exhibit 7

Exports are running a little behind. Terminal exports were 134,000 tonnes in the week, more than in four of the past five years for the week, but the crop-year total is 32 per cent behind last year and below the five-year average. Port stocks rose in the week but are 14 per cent below average, and most of them sit at the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence ports rather than on the West Coast. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's October 20 outlook, released after the week, cut its forecast of stocks at the end of the season by 134,000 tonnes and left its export and price forecasts unchanged.Charts: Exhibit 2, Exhibit 7, Exhibit 14

With elevator stocks back to normal, the rest of the harvest will decide how many more soybeans reach them. If loadings stay below average while farmers finish harvest, elevator and port stocks would build. Loadings back at their usual pace would keep them near normal.Charts: Exhibit 5, Exhibit 2