Canola bids fell with futures this week, and basis held still after four weeks of narrowing while crushing slowed for a second week.

November canola futures fell C$17.90 a tonne over the four trading sessions from October 13 to 16. Market reports tied the slide to harvest progress and farmer selling, to fund selling once prices broke below chart support on October 15, and to weaker soybeans and soybean oil in Chicago. Those reports also covered the first two sessions of the following week, so they do not separate this week's part of the fall. Daily reports did show Chicago soybeans slipping in each session from October 13 to 16.Charts: Exhibit 20

Spot bids fell with futures. The median regional bid dropped C$18.64 to C$742.74 a tonne, and every region's bid fell within about a dollar of the futures drop, so basis barely moved anywhere. That ends four weeks of narrowing. The four-week change in basis is about the usual amount for the season, but basis is still wider than last year and close to 2024-25, the widest of the past five years for the week; the three years before that were narrower.Charts: Exhibit 20, Exhibit 17, Exhibit 21

The handling figures give no strong reason for the pause. The one demand flow that turned lower was crushing. Plants crushed 13 per cent less than the five-year average for the week, the second weekly decline in a row, though still within the five-year range. The futures crush margin barely changed and is still the highest for the date in the six years shown, so the slowdown was in volume, not in the futures crush margin. Crushers also kept taking in seed: farm deliveries straight to processors were above average, and processor stocks in Alberta and Saskatchewan are still below average. So the slower crush does not show crushers needing less seed.Charts: Exhibit 28, Exhibit 32, Exhibit 5, Exhibit 7

Farm deliveries do not explain the pause either. Farmers delivered 25 per cent more to country elevators than the five-year average for the week, but deliveries were even further above average in the weeks when basis narrowed. Country stocks rose to slightly above average, close to their usual cover of shipments. Port terminals took in a third less than in the week before, less than in any of the past five years except last year's very low week. Exports rose from the week before and roughly matched what port terminals received from the country. Port stocks fell to 10 per cent below average, but nearly all of that drop was at Vancouver, which received more canola than it shipped, so the published flows do not explain it.Charts: Exhibit 5, Exhibit 7, Exhibit 2

For canola in the bin, the futures carry still pays a little after interest. February delivery gives the best gain in every region, between C$5.41 and C$13.74 a tonne after interest, before storage and shrink. Gains for later delivery are better than in most of the past five years at this time, when they were often below zero. A recovery in crushing toward its usual pace would give crushers reason to compete for deliveries. If crushing stays slow and exporters do not draw harder on country stocks, basis has little reason to resume narrowing.Charts: Exhibit 61, Exhibit 60