Canola futures fell C$20 a tonne this week and spot bids fell less, so basis narrowed in every region while elevators shipped more than farmers delivered.
- Basis narrowed by about C$6 a tonne and is now level with last year.
- Elevators shipped more canola than they took in, and the crush held at a normal pace while Saskatchewan crushers used up their own stocks.
- A new wave of deliveries as the last canola comes off, or a slower crush, would remove that support.
November canola futures fell C$20.00 a tonne this week, most of it on October 19 and 20. A weekly outlook on October 22, covering the six-session slide to October 20, tied it to harvest progress, farmer selling and a weaker soybean complex. A midday report on October 21 tied that day's further dip to lower vegetable oil prices. The board crush margin barely moved and is still wider than at this point in any of the past five years, so the value of oil and meal fell by about as much as the seed.Charts: Exhibit 20, Exhibit 33
Spot bids fell less than futures. The median regional bid dropped C$14.29, so basis narrowed by C$5.71 to minus C$50.35, and it narrowed in all nine regions. Basis is now level with last year at this point and close to most of the past five years. Only 2024-25 was wider, and three years were within C$5 of it. The five-year average looks about C$8 narrower only because basis in 2021-22 was unusually narrow, at about minus C$10. Last week basis barely moved. This week the narrowing of late September and early October resumed.Charts: Exhibit 20, Exhibit 21
The elevator flows fit the narrowing. Country elevators shipped 338,000 tonnes, 27 per cent above the five-year average for the week, and more than farmers delivered. Country stocks fell by 40,000 tonnes. The tonnage is at the average, but it now covers a little less than the usual weeks of shipments. Deliveries were still above average, though two of the past five years had more at this point, so the pull came from faster shipping, not from a shortage of farm grain. When elevators ship more than they take in, they need deliveries, and a narrower basis is how that shows up. The regions do not fit neatly, though. Alberta elevators had by far the largest stock draw, yet the largest narrowing, C$8.22, was in southwest Saskatchewan, where provincial stocks barely changed. The national flows support a general pull on bids, but they do not explain which regions gained most.Charts: Exhibit 5, Exhibit 7, Exhibit 21
Port stocks rose to well above usual. About two-thirds of that rise is one Bay & Lakes figure, and the week's receipts and shipments explain only a small part of it. That unusual jump makes the overall port position hard to read this week. Vancouver and Thunder Bay stocks are near their usual levels, but stock levels alone cannot show whether terminals are short of canola or congested.Charts: Exhibit 6
The crush did not slow further. Plants crushed about the same tonnage as last week, which this week matches the five-year average. Farm deliveries straight to processors fell below average, and Saskatchewan processor stocks dropped by a quarter to well below average. Saskatchewan crushers are drawing on their own seed while margins stay wide. If that continues, they will need more seed from farms, and that would give basis further support.Charts: Exhibit 36, Exhibit 5, Exhibit 7
For canola in the bin, the futures carry still pays a little after interest. April delivery now gives the best gain in eight of nine regions, a median C$9.75 a tonne after interest, before storage and shrink. In four of the past five years at this time, later delivery lost money after interest. Saskatchewan's canola harvest is behind every one of the past five years for this week, so more seed is still to come off fields. Heavier deliveries as harvest ends would ease the pull on bids, while a steady crush and strong shipments from the country would keep it.Charts: Exhibit 66, Exhibit 65, Exhibit 27
Manitoba processor stocks are shown as n/a: the Grain Commission has published only zero readings for them since late May 2026.