Barley exports rose and less grain arrived from the country this week, and port stocks fell by far more than those flows explain.
- The ports now hold barley for about half the usual number of weeks of shipments.
- Exports ran above average and less barley arrived from the country, but most of the drop in port stocks is not explained.
- Exports staying this strong would draw down country elevators, since farmers are delivering less than usual.
Last week barley was building up at the ports because ships were loading slowly. This week port stocks fell by 127,000 tonnes, with both Vancouver and Prince Rupert drawn down, to the second lowest for this week in six years. Exports rose to 117,900 tonnes, more than in four of the past five years for this week, and port receipts fell. Exports minus receipts account for only about a third of the fall, though. The port figures show no domestic shipments, so the other 85,000 tonnes is not explained by the reported flows. Port stocks now cover a little over half a week of port shipments at the recent pace, against a usual cover of about a week.Charts: Exhibit 2, Exhibit 5, Exhibit 7
Less barley was arriving to replace it. Port receipts fell from last week's high, and shipments out of country elevators were among the lowest of the past five years for this week. Farmers delivered 27 per cent less than average, a similar amount to the past two weeks. Country elevator stocks fell another 23,000 tonnes but are still close to average and cover about the usual number of weeks of shipments. So the system as a whole is not short of barley. Port stocks are low, but most of this week's fall is unexplained, and a low stock on its own cannot show that the ports are short.Charts: Exhibit 5, Exhibit 7
Domestic use is strong as well. Barley processed so far this crop year is above the top of the five-year range, and farm deliveries straight to processors were above average again. Over the past four weeks exports have run at about their usual pace, and for the season they are 10 per cent behind last year but well above the five-year average.Charts: Exhibit 15, Exhibit 5, Exhibit 2
Quality may shape where the crop goes. It was reported on October 20 that the malting barley industry expects less than 2 million tonnes of this year's crop to be fit for malting, against about 3 million last year, after late-summer rain caused sprouting, and that some downgraded barley may go to buyers in China. There is no Prairie barley price on the page, so this week's flows cannot be tied to a price change.Charts: Exhibit 5
If loadings stay this strong, more barley would have to come from country elevators. With farm deliveries below average, those stocks would then fall unless farmers sell more. If loadings slow again, the ports have room to refill from country elevators without much new farm selling.Charts: Exhibit 7, Exhibit 2
Barley covers Grain Commission flows and AAFC forecasts. No farm price, destination or USDA exhibits yet: PDQ holds only a few weeks of feed barley bids, and the customs and USDA readers are not set up for barley.