Barley exports rose for a third straight week while farm deliveries fell to their lowest for this week in six years, and country elevator stocks fell.
- Exports ran far above the usual pace for this time of year.
- Farmers delivered little, and country elevators shipped more than they took in, drawing their stocks down.
- Unless farm deliveries pick up, elevators that keep shipping at this rate would draw their stocks lower.
Barley exports rose for a third straight week, to 126,800 tonnes. That is more than twice the highest of the past five years for this week. For the season, terminal exports have now caught up with last year's pace and are well above the five-year average.Charts: Exhibit 2, Exhibit 5
Farm sales did not keep pace. Farmers delivered 39,900 tonnes to country elevators, the lowest for this week in six years and the smallest weekly amount since mid-August. Saskatchewan's harvest is essentially complete, so the slowdown is not a harvest delay. Country elevators shipped more than they took in, and their stocks fell by 28,000 tonnes, which the flows explain. Those stocks are now 10 per cent below average and cover slightly fewer weeks of shipments than usual.Charts: Exhibit 5, Exhibit 7, Exhibit 12
The port figures are harder to read. Port outflow ran about 37,000 tonnes ahead of receipts, so stocks should have fallen, but they rose by 4,000 tonnes. Last week they fell by much more than the flows explained. This week's gap is unexplained as well. Port stocks are low, below every one of the past five years for this week, but a low level alone does not show that terminals are short of barley.Charts: Exhibit 6, Exhibit 7, Exhibit 5
Domestic use adds to the pull. Barley processed so far this crop year is above the top of the five-year range. Deliveries straight to processors were a little below the usual amount this week, though, and processor stocks fell slightly in every province.Charts: Exhibit 15, Exhibit 5, Exhibit 7
There is no Prairie barley price on the page, so these flows cannot be tied to a price change. A feed grain report on 29 October put delivered Lethbridge feed barley at about C$295 a tonne for November and December, and said corn had fallen to about the same price and most feed buyers had their needs covered. With exports strong and farm deliveries thin, country elevators are drawing their stocks, but the export week was larger than what the country and port flows account for. If elevators keep shipping more than they take in for several weeks, they will need farmers to sell more. If shipments slow, they have room to refill without much new farm selling.Charts: Exhibit 5, Exhibit 7
Barley covers Grain Commission flows and AAFC forecasts. No farm price, destination or USDA exhibits yet: PDQ holds only a few weeks of feed barley bids, and the customs and USDA readers are not set up for barley.