Mills ground more oats than in this week of any recent year and terminal exports had their biggest week of the season, while farm sales slipped back below usual.
- Mills and exporters both took more oats this week.
- Farmers sold less than usual, and processors drew down their own stocks to keep milling.
- If farm sales stay this low while mills run this hard, buyers will have to draw stocks lower or attract more grain.
Demand for oats picked up on both fronts this week. Canadian mills ground 21,500 tonnes, the most in any week this crop year and above every one of the past five years for this week. Milling for the crop year so far is about at the five-year average. Terminals exported 24,000 tonnes, the largest week of the season, against almost nothing in this week of the past five years. Most of the port outflow left from Thunder Bay. For the season, terminal exports are now ahead of last year, though still below the five-year average.Charts: Exhibit 16, Exhibit 15, Exhibit 2, Exhibit 5
Farm sales did not keep up. Farmers delivered 21,700 tonnes to country elevators, less than in this week of any of the past five years, and 12,400 tonnes straight to processors, which matched the highest of those years. Even counting both, farmers sold less than in any of the past five years for this week. Last week's story found farm sales back to about the usual amount; this week they slipped again.Charts: Exhibit 5
Processors made up part of the gap from their own stocks. Processor stocks fell in all three Prairie provinces, most in Saskatchewan, where they are now 41 per cent below average. Country elevator stocks fell by 7,300 tonnes, but shipments exceeded deliveries by only about 1,700, so most of that fall is unexplained. Those stocks are about a quarter below average, but because shipments have been slow for weeks, they still cover about the usual number of weeks. Port stocks fell too, but by less than the gap between port outflow and receipts, so the port figures are not a clean measure this week.Charts: Exhibit 7, Exhibit 5, Exhibit 6
The crop is almost all in. Saskatchewan's harvest is ahead of its five-year average, and Alberta is just below the range of the past five years with little left to combine. With only a few per cent left to combine, a harvest delay can explain little of the drop in deliveries. There is no oat price on the page, and no market report in the week explained oat prices, so these flows cannot be tied to a price change.Charts: Exhibit 9
If mills keep grinding at this rate and exports continue, buyers will need farmers to sell more than they did this week, or they will keep running their own stocks down. If farm sales return to the usual pace, the current demand can be met without further draws.Charts: Exhibit 16, Exhibit 5
Oats covers Grain Commission flows and AAFC forecasts. No farm price, destination or USDA exhibits yet: PDQ holds only a few weeks of feed oat bids, and the customs and USDA readers are not set up for oats. Most oats leave by rail to the United States, so port terminal exports are small.