CWRS bids followed spring wheat futures down almost dollar for dollar this week, so basis stopped narrowing but held at its narrowest for this time of year in six years.

December spring wheat futures fell another C$9.88 a tonne this week, and almost all of that came from the lower US-dollar price, since the exchange rate barely moved. No market report explained the Minneapolis spring wheat move on its own. Reports on Chicago wheat, which was headed for a ninth straight weekly loss by Friday, tied the weakness to Russia letting grain ships leave Sea of Azov ports from 26 October and to hopes of progress toward ending the war in Ukraine. Thursday's bounce in Chicago was tied to strong US export sales and a Chinese inquiry for US wheat. Consultancy estimates of Russian export prices also fell in the week to 30 October.Charts: Exhibit 20

This time CWRS bids did not cushion the drop. The median regional spot bid fell C$9.41, so basis narrowed by only C$0.47 to minus C$26.37. After four weeks of sharp narrowing, basis has levelled off. It is now narrower than at this point in any of the past five years, though four of those years were within about C$4 of it. For farmers, the futures fall now passes almost fully into the spot bid.Charts: Exhibit 20, Exhibit 21

The pull from the country elevators is still there. They shipped about 91,000 tonnes more wheat than farmers delivered, and that gap explains nearly all of a fourth straight weekly drop in their stocks. Country stocks are now about at the five-year average and cover slightly fewer weeks of shipments than usual. Farm deliveries picked up from the week before but were still below three of the past five years for this week.Charts: Exhibit 5, Exhibit 7

This week the regions partly line up with local stocks. Manitoba elevator stocks fell by a fifth to 42 per cent below average, and its two regions had the largest narrowing, with southeast Saskatchewan next. In Alberta, where elevator stocks are above average and cover more weeks than usual, basis barely moved. Northern Saskatchewan does not fit: its stocks also cover fewer weeks than usual, yet basis there hardly changed. So local shortage explains part of the regional pattern, not all of it.Charts: Exhibit 21, Exhibit 7

The export side is weaker than the country flows. Terminal exports slowed to 373,500 tonnes, below four of the past five years for this week, although the four-week average is still on the pace needed to reach the annual forecast. Port stocks rose by 156,000 tonnes, back to about average. Port receipts and all port outflow were almost exactly equal, so the week's flows explain none of that rise, and it says nothing on its own about demand at the ports.Charts: Exhibit 2, Exhibit 5, Exhibit 6

Waiting pays little. After interest, most regions gain only a few dollars a tonne for any later month, and North Alberta and West Manitoba gain nothing in any month shown, before storage costs. Bids reward delivery now. That holds while elevators keep shipping ahead of deliveries. A pickup in farm deliveries, or slower exports feeding back into country shipments, would weaken the elevator pull that has gone with this narrow basis.Charts: Exhibit 62, Exhibit 5