Canola futures ended the week almost where they started, but the crush margin fell C$26 a tonne and spot bids slipped a little more than futures despite strong exports.
- Basis widened slightly this week, ending last week's narrowing.
- Lower values for canola oil and meal cut the crush margin, while exports and country shipments stayed strong.
- Whether oil values recover, and whether exports keep this pace, will decide how much room buyers have on bids.
The November canola contract ended the week down only C$2.70 a tonne, but the days in between were not quiet. Market reports tied the losses on Tuesday and Thursday to speculative funds selling long positions and to weaker crude oil, and Wednesday's dip to sharp losses in Chicago soyoil. In the same reports' reading, Friday's gain came from a jump in crude oil on the threat of renewed fighting in the Middle East.Charts: Exhibit 20
The products lost more than the seed. The board crush margin fell C$26.15 to C$259.94 a tonne. Last week it was wider than at this point in any of the past five years. Now it is about level with the widest of them. Crushers still ran hard. They processed 205,900 tonnes, more than in this week of four of the past five years, and farm deliveries straight to processors were above all five. A margin this wide still pays to crush, but it leaves less room to pay up for seed than a week ago.Charts: Exhibit 34, Exhibit 36, Exhibit 31, Exhibit 5
Spot bids fell a little more than futures, so basis widened by C$0.94 to minus C$51.29, and it widened in all nine regions. That ends last week's narrowing but takes back only a small part of it. Basis is close to last year and to most of the past five years; only 2022-23 was clearly wider, and 2021-22 was far narrower.Charts: Exhibit 20, Exhibit 21
The grain flows did not point to a wider basis. Terminal exports reached 284,900 tonnes, the most this crop year and more than in this week of any of the past five years. Country elevators again shipped more than farmers delivered, and their stocks fell to the five-year average, covering slightly fewer weeks of shipments than usual. Saskatchewan elevators had the largest draw, yet basis widened there as it did elsewhere. So the slight widening was not a sign of weak export demand. The one measure that moved against bids this week was the value of oil and meal.Charts: Exhibit 2, Exhibit 5, Exhibit 7, Exhibit 21
Port stocks fell 172,000 tonnes, but nearly all of that reverses last week's unusual jump at the Bay & Lakes terminals. Port outflow and port receipts were almost equal this week, so the flows explain none of the drop. Total port stocks are close to usual for the time of year.Charts: Exhibit 6, Exhibit 7
Saskatchewan's harvest is now at 99 per cent, back within the range of the past five years after running behind, and farm deliveries have eased for three weeks in a row. For canola in the bin, April delivery gives the best gain after interest in eight of nine regions, before storage and shrink. In most of the past five years, waiting to April at this point lost money after interest. Steady crushing and exports would keep buyers needing farm deliveries. A further fall in vegetable oil would leave crushers even less room on their seed bids.Charts: Exhibit 27, Exhibit 5, Exhibit 66, Exhibit 65
Manitoba processor stocks are shown as n/a: the Grain Commission has published only zero readings for them since late May 2026.