Oats moved slowly through Prairie elevators while domestic milling held to its usual pace, from a crop smaller than first expected.
- Farm deliveries of oats and shipments out of elevators were both well below the five-year average.
- Mills are still grinding oats at a normal pace, and the official outlook expects a smaller crop than it did in spring.
- A pickup in deliveries as Alberta finishes harvest would show whether the slow flow was only about harvest timing.
Oats moved slowly through the elevator system in the week ended October 11. Farmers delivered 13,900 tonnes to country elevators, less than half the five-year average for the week, and elevators shipped out only 10,500 tonnes, about a quarter of the average. Country elevator stocks were below the five-year average but within the usual range, and with shipments this slow they cover more weeks of shipments than usual.Charts: Exhibit 5, Exhibit 7
The late harvest in Alberta does not explain the slow flow on its own. Alberta reported oats 73.9 per cent harvested on October 6, below any of the past five years at that date, yet Alberta's country elevators held more oats than average. Manitoba, where harvest was close to normal at 97 per cent by October 14, had the lowest elevator stocks against average on October 11, below the range of the past five years. So the pattern does not line up with harvest timing, and the figures do not show whether buyers or farmers are holding back.Charts: Exhibit 9, Exhibit 6
Domestic demand is steady. Mills ground 11,800 tonnes in the week to October 11, close to the five-year average, and the crop-year total of 138,800 tonnes is within the usual range, slightly below average. Farm deliveries directly to processors were above average for the week.Charts: Exhibit 13, Exhibit 12, Exhibit 5
The supply behind this is smaller than first expected. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada cut its production forecast sharply in July and now puts the crop at about 3.03 million tonnes, against 3.55 million in its January outlook, with ending stocks of 400,000 tonnes. In September it raised its forecast of the average oat price for the year by C$15 to C$330 a tonne. There is no weekly oat price series on the page and no market report for the week, so this story does not explain a price change.Charts: Exhibit 15
For now, the slow flow sits alongside steady milling and a tighter official supply outlook. If deliveries pick up as Alberta finishes harvest, elevator stocks would rebuild toward normal. If they stay low after harvest is done, the cause is something other than harvest timing.Charts: Exhibit 5, Exhibit 9
Oats covers Grain Commission flows and AAFC forecasts. No farm price, destination or USDA exhibits yet: PDQ holds only a few weeks of feed oat bids, and the customs and USDA readers are not set up for oats. Most oats leave by rail to the United States, so port terminal exports are small.