Barley stocks at country elevators fell back to about average as grain moved to port faster than farmers delivered, and port stocks stayed well above usual as arrivals outran loadings.
- Country elevators shipped far more barley than farmers delivered, so their stocks are back to about normal.
- The barley went to the ports faster than it was loaded onto ships, so port stocks built up.
- Faster export loadings would clear the ports; if loadings stay slow, port stocks would keep building.
The barley that had built up in country elevators moved out over the past two weeks. In the week to October 18, elevators shipped 137,700 tonnes, above the five-year average for the week, while farmers delivered about a quarter less than average. Country elevator stocks fell by 66,000 tonnes, a second large weekly drop. In early October they were well above average; now they are only 4 per cent above it, with about the usual number of weeks of shipments on hand.Charts: Exhibit 5, Exhibit 7
The barley went to port faster than ships took it. Port terminals received more barley than in any of the past five years for the week, and more than ships loaded, although exports were in the middle of the past five years for the week; the four-week export average is below average. Exports for the crop year are still well above average, so the slowdown is recent. Port stocks rose to 38 per cent above average and cover well over the usual number of weeks of exports. So the extra stocks have moved from the country to the ports, not out of Canada.Charts: Exhibit 5, Exhibit 2, Exhibit 7
Domestic buyers also took more barley straight from farms. Farm deliveries directly to processors were nearly three times the five-year average for the week, though the amount processed in the week was lower than in four of the past five years. Barley processed so far this crop year is above the five-year range. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's October 20 outlook, released after the week, raised its export forecast by 100,000 tonnes and trimmed its forecast of stocks at the end of the season, while leaving its average price forecast unchanged.Charts: Exhibit 5, Exhibit 13, Exhibit 12, Exhibit 15
There is no weekly barley price series on the page, and no market report on barley was found for the week, so this story does not explain a price change. Last week's concern was a build-up in country elevators; this week it is the ports. If exports return to their usual pace, port stocks would come down and exporters would again need barley from the country. If loadings stay slow, port stocks would keep building and the pull on country barley would ease.Charts: Exhibit 7, Exhibit 2
Barley covers Grain Commission flows and AAFC forecasts. No farm price, destination or USDA exhibits yet: PDQ holds only a few weeks of feed barley bids, and the customs and USDA readers are not set up for barley.