Yellow pea bids rose again, more slowly, as exports ran at twice what reached the ports while shipments from the country slowed and farm deliveries stayed above average.

Yellow pea bids rose again in the week of October 12 to 16, but more slowly. The median regional bid for No. 2 yellow peas rose C$3.93 to C$337.88 a tonne, a much smaller gain than the week before, and all eight regions quoting a bid moved up. The bid is about 37 per cent above last year but still below the five-year average. Peas have no futures market, and no report on world pea prices was found for the week, so the move can only be read from the Canadian flows.Charts: Exhibit 11, Exhibit 12

Exports are still the pull. The Grain Commission figures cover all pea classes, not only yellow. Exports in the week to October 18 were 77,400 tonnes, more than twice the 30,000 tonnes port terminals received from the country. Port stocks fell by about half, to 35 per cent below average and about level with last year; the fall was about 24,000 tonnes larger than exports minus receipts, and the figures do not show why. With exports running well ahead of what arrives from the country, exporters need grain from elevators to keep loading, which gives buyers a reason to keep bids firm.Charts: Exhibit 2, Exhibit 5, Exhibit 7

The flow out of the country slowed this week, though. Shipments out of country elevators fell by half to below the five-year average, and receipts at the ports dropped to about average. Farmers, meanwhile, delivered more than the five-year average for a second week, and country elevator stocks rose slightly after three weeks of decline. They remain below average and cover fewer weeks of shipments than usual. Slower movement out of the country and steadier deliveries fit a smaller rise in bids than the week before.Charts: Exhibit 5, Exhibit 7

The peas exist. Canada began the crop year on July 31 with 1.18 million tonnes in stock, more than double last year and the five-year average, and most of it on farms. This year's crop is smaller than last year's but above the five-year average. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's October 20 outlook left its forecasts of production, exports and ending stocks unchanged. So the tight spot is the elevator and port system, not the country, and how fast it eases depends on the price at which farmers choose to sell.Charts: Exhibit 20, Exhibit 19, Exhibit 25

Buyers want peas now. In every region, November and December bids pay less than the spot bid once interest is counted, so storing peas into the winter is not being rewarded at current bids. If exports keep running ahead of what reaches the ports, exporters would keep needing country peas. If farm deliveries keep rising at these prices, or loadings slow, the pull on spot bids would ease.Charts: Exhibit 28