Prairie crop markets this week
Canola
Canola futures ended the week flat, but spot bids edged up as basis kept narrowing while crushers and the movement to port both drew heavily on country grain.
- Basis has now narrowed for four weeks running, and is about where it was a year ago.
- The futures crush margin is wide, and grain reached the ports faster than ships loaded it.
- Faster export loadings or a smaller crush margin would change how much room bids have to keep improving.
CWRS wheat
Spring wheat futures ended the week flat, but CWRS bids rose as basis kept recovering from a wide harvest level, helped this week by a jump in exports.
- Basis has narrowed four weeks running, coming back from an unusually wide level at harvest.
- This week wheat moved quickly to port and exports picked up, but elevators are not short of grain.
- A return to slower loadings would leave less reason for basis to keep narrowing.
Durum
Durum bids posted their biggest weekly rise of the crop year in a week when heavy shipments drew country elevator stocks below their five-year range.
- The median durum bid rose about C$15 a tonne, and bids rose in every region that quoted them.
- Elevators shipped out far more durum than farmers delivered, so their stocks fell.
- The official outlook still sees stocks building over the year, so the pull depends on shipments staying fast.
Yellow peas
Yellow pea bids rose again as fast shipments to port drew elevator stocks below their usual range, though peas on farms are plentiful.
- The median yellow pea bid rose about C$15 a tonne, and bids rose in every region.
- Elevators are shipping peas to port faster than farmers deliver them, so elevator stocks are low.
- Bigger farm deliveries at these prices, or slower exports, would ease the pull on bids.
Lentils
Saskatchewan lentil quotes rose for three of five classes as farm deliveries stayed below average, despite very large stocks on farms.
- Large green lentils gained the most, while Alberta's quotes were steady to mixed.
- Farmers are delivering fewer lentils than usual, so elevator stocks have fallen below the usual range even though farm stocks are large.
- More farm selling at these prices would ease the pull, and so would slower export loadings.
Chickpeas
Chickpea quotes held steady for a second week as Saskatchewan finished harvesting a large crop on top of big carry-in stocks.
- Saskatchewan's quotes for desi and kabuli chickpeas did not change in the week.
- Supply is large because a big crop follows stocks well above normal.
- A move in the provincial quotes, or a new official outlook on October 20, would show whether that supply is weighing on prices.
Barley
Barley processing is running above the usual range and elevators drew their stocks down, but exports fell back and port stocks rose.
- Domestic processing of barley is running above the past five years, while exports swing from week to week.
- Elevators shipped more barley than farmers delivered, but part of it waited at port as exports fell back.
- Faster export loadings would bring stocks down, and more farm deliveries with slow exports would build them again.
Oats
Oats moved slowly through Prairie elevators while domestic milling held to its usual pace, from a crop smaller than first expected.
- Farm deliveries of oats and shipments out of elevators were both well below the five-year average.
- Mills are still grinding oats at a normal pace, and the official outlook expects a smaller crop than it did in spring.
- A pickup in deliveries as Alberta finishes harvest would show whether the slow flow was only about harvest timing.
Soybeans
Manitoba soybean prices held steady at a high level as deliveries from a late harvest picked up sharply and brought elevator stocks close to the usual tonnage.
- Manitoba's soybean price barely moved in the week and is well above last year.
- Harvest is behind, but farm deliveries jumped this week and elevator stocks caught up to about the usual tonnage.
- A slow finish to the harvest would hold deliveries back again.